Injuries can create one of the biggest edges in fantasy football. When a star player is ruled out, the touches don’t disappear; they get redistributed. Heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, several impactful injuries could shake things up. Here’s what they mean for fantasy football and which players stand to benefit most in Quicktasy drafts through Smart Variations.
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#1 Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
Christian McCaffrey injured his hamstring but has expressed optimism that he will play Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, given his injury history, the San Francisco 49ers may want to play it cautiously and turn to rookie Kaelon Black instead.
Best Replacement Options: Javonte Williams (RB – DAL) & Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
Javonte Williams has been inconsistent and inefficient this season. However, we know how explosive the Dallas Cowboys’ offense can be, especially against bad opponents. This week, they take on an Indianapolis Colts defense that has been abysmal.
In their first week without DeForest Buckner, the Colts allowed 183 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. On the season, Indianapolis is allowing the highest EPA per rush (+0.05) and the sixth-most rushing yards per game (131.8).
If the Cowboys blow them out like the Jacksonville Jaguars did, which I expect, Williams should get the touches he needs to explode on Sunday. I could see a performance similar to his Week 4 game against the Houston Texans or Week 7 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Multiple touchdowns and well over 90 scrimmage yards could be coming his way.
Since Christian McCaffrey is typically drafted very early, replacing him with Javonte Williams alone would be irresponsible. That’s where Malik Nabers comes in.
Nabers takes on the Philadelphia Eagles, and I covered how favorable that matchup is in this week’s Stack Attack article. After being named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for October, I fully expect him to keep up that production. He’s my 16th-ranked player for Week 9, and for good reason.
Given that Nabers is being drafted after McCaffrey but before Javonte Williams, I would use a double swap here: replace McCaffrey with Nabers, then replace your next pick, whoever it may be, with Javonte Williams. You add a star to your wide receiver room while giving your running back corps a chance at an explosive performance from Williams.
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#2 Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Christian Watson is questionable for Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots, and he will certainly be missed if he can’t play. He’s been spectacular this season, ranking fourth in receiving yards with 708 and tied for second in touchdowns with six.
The New England matchup isn’t great by any means, but given how this game is likely to play out, the Packers will need to air it out. That makes Watson a huge beneficiary of the expected passing volume. If he’s ruled out, there are two wide receivers I love as replacements.
Option A: Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
Both players are being drafted around the same spot, so ADP may not always work in your favor. As of now, however, this swap makes sense.
Nico Collins has been great this season when healthy. Add in the fact that he’s now the full-time Z receiver following the trade for Marvin Harrison Jr., and it becomes much easier to trust him on a weekly basis. He sees a significant production increase when playing the Z position rather than as an on-ball X receiver.
The matchup isn’t great statistically, but I think those numbers are overblown. The Los Angeles Chargers rank in the top 10 in passing yards allowed (198.4), but they’re tied for dead last in opponent pass-play percentage (49.5%). I don’t necessarily think they’re a good pass defense. Rather, they’re a bad team that’s trailing in so many games that opponents don’t have to throw the ball.
I don’t expect this game to be a blowout, either.
The Texans’ defense has been abysmal this season, almost as bad as Justin Herbert. There’s a chance, although I wouldn’t call it a likely outcome, that the Chargers keep this game close enough to force Houston to continue throwing the ball to separate from Los Angeles.
I like the matchup despite what the numbers suggest, and I think Collins could finish as a top-five receiver this week.
Option B: Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
The biggest boom-or-bust player in fantasy football is set up for a big week. Williams has been on a tear over the last four weeks, finishing as the WR5 in points per game from Weeks 4 through 8.
He takes on a Miami Dolphins defense in a similar situation to the Chargers. Their raw passing numbers are around league average, allowing the 16th-most passing yards per game (221) and the 27th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (16).
However, Miami is allowing the highest EPA per pass (+0.26), and they’re tied with the Chargers in opponent pass-play percentage. Once again, the volume numbers look decent, but that’s largely because teams don’t have to throw the ball against them.
That said, Malik Willis has been playing well, and the Detroit Lions’ defense is bad enough that Miami could stay competitive in this game. By competitive, I mean losing by only 10 points.
We’ve seen the Miami defense give up big plays to wide receivers, including players like Kyle Williams, who aren’t remotely as talented as Jameson Williams. It seems like almost every week someone scores a 40-yard receiving touchdown against this defense.
Jamo is one of, if not the, best big-play receivers in the league. He gets targets downfield and converts on them, ranking fourth in receiving EPA on passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield (+11.9).
I expect Jared Goff to look for Williams downfield as he always does, but especially against this putrid Miami defense.
Joe Shea is a Fantasy Analyst for FanDrill. Follow him on Instagram @JoeSheaFootball and TikTok @JoeSheaFootball for more fantasy football content.
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