• Five Bold Predictions — Week 9

    Every week in the NFL, the unpredictable happens. Last week, Tyler Allgeier came out of nowhere to finish as the RB1, while Cam Ward and Adonai Mitchell both put together the biggest performances of their respective seasons. If you had any of those players at ADP, you had a significantly increased chance of cashing in your contests.

    That’s the beauty of bold predictions: finding players with low probabilities of hitting but massive upside if things break their way. This week, I’m giving you five more predictions for the main slate that have less than a 10% chance of happening in simulations, but are absolutely within the realm of possibility. If even one of these contrarian picks strikes gold, you could be sitting atop the leaderboard.

    These are my favorite kinds of plays: a high-upside player in a favorable matchup getting his first, and possibly last, opportunity to make a name for himself in the NFL.

    Quarterbacks often play with restraint when it comes to using their legs. But when your NFL career might be on the line, you’d better believe it’s time to break out the big guns. In Milton’s case, those are rocket-powered legs.

    Milton gets a friendly matchup against the Giants, and based on how J.J. McCarthy played during his first two weeks with New York, the Eagles could also find themselves in a pass-heavy game script.

    Milton has the athleticism to make things happen on the ground, and this could be the perfect opportunity for him to show it. Don’t be surprised if he rushes for 80 yards and a score.

    Yes, Jonathan Taylor is still on the roster and will likely remain there when you complete your drafts. But there is a chance that changes before the slate starts.

    If Taylor gets traded or the Colts make him inactive, as the Cardinals did with Marvin Harrison Jr. to preserve his trade value, McGowan could suddenly become the lead back. And you just got him six rounds later than you would have needed to draft Taylor.

    If Taylor isn’t traded or made inactive, you can simply replace McGowan with one of your two post-draft edits. Nothing lost.

    But if McGowan gets the start against the Cowboys’ horrendous run defense, running behind the Colts’ strong offensive line, he should have a very productive week. At an 11th-round price, the potential payoff is enormous.

    You may not have even realized it, but Woody Marks took over the Texans’ backfield four weeks ago and has been getting fed nearly 20 touches every game.

    David Montgomery was ruled out just three hours before I started writing this article, so strike before Marks’ ADP skyrockets.

    Believe it or not, the Chargers have one of the weakest run defenses in football this season. The game script should also be among the most favorable Houston has seen all year for a heavy rushing attack.

    Marks already has the workload. Now he gets the matchup and opportunity to turn it into a monster performance. I think he clears 100 rushing yards this week.

    Unfortunately, this is the perfect storm to slow down what has otherwise been a tremendous young wide receiver.

    Patrick Surtain, who is allowing just 0.14 fantasy points per route run, may be the best cornerback in the NFL. He’s gearing up to lock McMillan down in man-to-man coverage, where McMillan has posted a negative separation score.

    Carolina’s offensive line is also ailing, which only makes matters worse. Against an exceptional Broncos defense, I expect the Panthers’ passing game to struggle altogether.

    McMillan is a tremendous talent, but this matchup presents too many obstacles. I think he finishes outside the top 40 wide receivers this week.

    Hunter Henry hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he didn’t practice Wednesday. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are also dealing with the absence of A.J. Brown, who is expected to miss yet another week with an injury.

    Essentially, Drake Maye has no one to throw to.

    Well, no one except the tight end who currently ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per route run: Eli Rairdon.

    Green Bay is certainly no pushover defensively, but Rairdon has too much talent and too much opportunity to overlook him at an 11th-round price tag. If the targets come his way, he has a legitimate opportunity to finish among the top eight tight ends this week.

  • Stack Attack — Week 9

    Stacking is one of the most efficient ways to separate yourself from the field in Quicktasy tournaments.

    When an offense has a big day, your team benefits. When a quarterback throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, there’s a good chance at least one of his pass catchers is putting up tournament-winning numbers right alongside him.

    That’s why stacks matter: we’re building lineups with the highest ceiling possible to help you win a Quicktasy tournament.

    This week, we’re identifying the highest-upside game environments on the Week 9 slate and the best stacks to pair with those matchups.

    The Detroit Lions’ offense has been one of the best units in football halfway through the 2026 season. They rank first in yards per game (395.4), third in points per game (29.0), and fourth in EPA per play (+0.09). While Jahmyr Gibbs and the rushing attack have been excellent, Jared Goff has been playing on another level.

    Goff has 15 passing touchdowns against just one interception. He’s seventh in passing yards (1,964), fifth in EPA per dropback (+0.20), and tied for the fourth-best PFF passing grade (81.8). He’s been incredibly efficient and currently sits as the QB8. Some may think this is a bad time to recommend him after his 9.04-point performance last week, but that came against Brian Flores and Minnesota’s defense, which allows the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (8.57). I’m not worried in the slightest.

    In Week 9, Goff faces a Miami defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (23.57) and the second-most passing touchdowns per game (2.29). Geno Smith just torched this defense for 23.48 fantasy points in Week 7, throwing two touchdowns to tight end Mason Taylor. That’s where Sam LaPorta comes in.

    LaPorta has been inconsistent this year, following two strong performances in Weeks 4 and 5 with a couple of stinkers in Weeks 7 and 8. However, this matchup is too good to ignore. Miami allows the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (11.43), along with the fifth-most receptions (6.86) and yards (69) per game and the fourth-most touchdowns (0.86). You could certainly go with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jameson Williams instead, but Miami ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (16.0). Both are studs, but LaPorta has the bigger matchup advantage against a defense whose linebackers and safeties have struggled badly in coverage.

    As for Malik Willis and Caleb Douglas, this is a true longshot. Only take this swing if you’re comfortable with the risk. Detroit is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers (22.71), the most to quarterbacks (28.71), the most passing yards per game (276.6), and the most passing touchdowns (18). Sorry for the laundry list of stats, but it proves my point.

    Malik Willis isn’t a great quarterback, but he’s been a viable fantasy QB2, throwing for over 200 yards and two touchdowns in each of his last two games. Against this defense, he has a path to a low-end QB1 finish. Caleb Douglas is an underrated rookie and a big play waiting to happen. We saw it against the Jets, when he turned just two catches into 70 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll cost you one of your final picks, so even if you don’t stack him with Willis, take a shot. One big play or touchdown could be enough to make him a valuable tournament contributor.

    I fully believe “Eighteen,” formerly known as “Nine,” is here to stay. I’m not saying he’s definitively a franchise quarterback, but he fits this Giants system very well and can force-feed Malik Nabers the ball.

    McCarthy has put up solid numbers in his five quarters of football for New York, including a career-high 252 passing yards in Week 7 against Houston. He’s always been known for his big-time throws, and we’ve already seen that ability translate. His 9.1% big-time throw rate ranks second among quarterbacks who have started at least one game.

    Now he gets a Philadelphia defense allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game (235.4), 12th-most passing touchdowns (12), eighth-highest EPA per dropback (+0.06), and 11th-most fantasy points per game (20.75). We saw McCarthy take advantage of a bad Houston pass defense two weeks ago; he just didn’t get the touchdowns because the running backs and Jameis Winston finished the drives in the red zone. Against Philadelphia, I think he has a legitimate shot at a QB2 finish. Two hundred yards and two touchdowns are certainly within reach, especially with Cam Skattebo nursing a hamstring injury and Malik Nabers playing at a top-three level.

    Very few wide receivers have definitively played better than Leek in 2026, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the obvious exception. Nabers ranks ninth in yards per route run (2.54) and ninth in receiving yards (605), despite already having his bye week. He’s coming off four consecutive 100-yard games after easing back into action from his ACL tear earlier in the season.

    This could be an ugly game; divisional matchups are weird, regardless of how good the teams are. However, Philadelphia allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (26.25), the fourth-most receiving yards (183.75), and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (1.25). I don’t feel like I need to defend recommending Malik Nabers. Just watch him play. Pair him with McCarthy late in your drafts for a sleeper QB2 stack, and you could have a huge competitive advantage in your Quicktasy tournaments.

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    Of course, I like the usual suspects: Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, Joe Burrow and any Bengals pass catcher, Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua. You get the point. Their matchups are too good, and the pairings are too obvious to spend time writing about every week. Draft them if you want, but be prepared to spend significant draft capital on those stacks.

  • Cornerstone Picks — Week 9

    We continued our streak of crushing value at tight end last week, with a big performance from T.J. Hockenson against the Lions’ defense. That’s exactly what we’re looking for with these picks: identifying favorable matchups and overlooked players who can outperform their draft position. This week, I’m recommending four more players as cornerstones for your Quicktasy lineups.

    Typically, drafting a quarterback who completed zero passes the previous week would be ill-advised. But it’s obvious Todd Bowles knew exactly what he was doing against an Atlanta run-funnel defense in a downpour. I’m not going to overreact to one unusual game, especially when Baker enters what is by far his best matchup of the season. All five of his starts so far have come against top-10 pass defenses. Now he gets an ideal game script against Chicago, a defense sitting in the bottom quartile. On Quicktasy, you can draft two quarterbacks, and with our premium QB scoring, it’s worth reaching for a quality gunslinger in what’s expected to be a favorable game environment. Don’t let last week’s box score scare you away from a quarterback who finally gets a chance to air it out.

    Any time you can get a running back coming off a disastrous week, you know his Field% is likely to end up below 5%. That’s leverage over your competition, and it’s exactly the kind of opportunity we want to exploit. Judkins played just 39% of the snaps last week because the game got out of hand early in Pittsburgh, forcing Cleveland to rely more heavily on Dylan Sampson, its primary pass-catching back. But let’s not forget that Judkins racked up 78 touches over his previous four starts. That’s the workload I’m interested in, not one ugly game that was dictated by the scoreboard. With a healthier game script expected against a Saints defense that has been getting shredded on the ground lately, Judkins has a sneaky chance to find the end zone twice. Getting that kind of upside from a seventh- or eighth-round Quicktasy pick is exactly what we’re after.

    You won’t find me hyping Rashee Rice very often. His ADP was wildly inflated in each of the past two seasons, but with the injury, his Week 9 ADP has plummeted all the way to a low-end WR2. That price would be acceptable on its own, but here’s what makes him so appealing: he has virtually no competition for targets in the Chiefs’ lackluster receiver corps. More importantly, the Jets have allowed an absurd 8.6 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks, by far the worst mark in the league. That’s a recipe for a big performance from a receiver who could command a massive share of the passing offense. At his current draft cost, Rice is the single best value on the slate. Don’t let past ADP inflation keep you from taking advantage of what could be a tremendous buying opportunity.

    Healthy snap count? Check. Dulcich has played more than 70% of the snaps all season. Ideal game script? Check. As seven-point underdogs, the Dolphins should be forced to pass most of the game. Perfect matchup? SUPER check, and that may actually be an understatement. The Lions have already allowed tight ends to combine for 61 receptions, 684 yards, and 11 touchdowns in just seven games this season. Dulcich isn’t the most talented tight end in the world, but we don’t need him to be. We’re looking for a solid bet to finish inside the top 12 at a position where the matchup is practically begging us to take advantage. You can grab him with your final pick of your Quicktasy drafts or use a variation edit to create unique exposures. At that price, I’ll gladly take my chances.

  • Cornerstone Picks — Week 8

    Last week, we told you to target Malik Willis as a late-round quarterback, and boy, did he deliver. Willis smashed his eighth-round price tag, finishing as the QB3 on the entire slate. That’s exactly what we’re hunting for with Cornerstone Picks: players who dramatically outperform their draft capital and give your lineups the flexibility to spend up elsewhere. This week, we’re back with four more values who could help you climb the Quicktasy tournament leaderboards.

    Let’s be clear: Tanner McKee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. But let’s also remember that he’s easing into the starting role, and 210-plus passing yards in each of his first two starts isn’t nearly as bad as some might have you believe. Now he gets a Washington Commanders defense that has become an absolute pass funnel, allowing 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the second-worst mark in football. This isn’t necessarily a bet on McKee suddenly becoming a superstar. It’s a bet on an affordable quarterback facing an exceptionally favorable matchup. Remember, Quicktasy is a SuperFlex format, and sometimes your QB2 doesn’t need to win you the tournament. He just needs to deliver solid production while you load up on elite talent elsewhere. Getting McKee in the ninth or 10th round allows you to do exactly that. I’ll gladly take the discount and let the matchup do the heavy lifting.

    I get it. Nobody gets particularly excited about clicking Rachaad White’s name on draft day. But what if I told you to think of this pick differently? You’re not drafting White. You’re drafting against a Philadelphia Eagles run defense that is one of just three teams to have surrendered more than 800 rushing yards this season. Suddenly, that sounds a lot more appealing, doesn’t it? Like it or not, White is the clear RB1 in Washington, and the Commanders enter this matchup as five-point favorites. That means a potentially positive game script and plenty of opportunities to pound the football. Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols aren’t likely to steal enough touches to meaningfully threaten his workload. No, White probably isn’t going to drop 30 fantasy points, but he doesn’t need to at his draft cost. He’s arguably the best running back value on the entire slate, with a sneaky path to two rushing touchdowns. Sometimes the boring pick is the one that wins you money.

    Here’s a stat that might surprise you: no team in football has allowed more receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. And while Travis Hunter and Buster Brown have generally held their own on the outside, it’s veteran nickel corner Jourdan Lewis who has been getting torched. Lewis entered the season with an excellent reputation, but turn on the film and you’ll notice he looks a step or two slower than he did in previous years. That’s a serious problem when you’re lining up across from Keenan Allen, who remains one of the best route runners in football. With Josh Downs potentially on his way out via trade, Allen could find himself operating as Indianapolis’ No. 1 receiving option. Add in a game script that could force the Colts to throw while playing from behind, and suddenly we’re looking at a veteran wideout with a realistic chance to see a dozen targets. Allen doesn’t need blazing speed to exploit this matchup. He just needs to keep doing what he’s always done: get open. This is exactly the kind of volume-driven upside I want in my Quicktasy lineups.

    This might be the easiest click of the entire season. T.J. Hockenson is somehow available in the seventh round of Quicktasy drafts, and I’d seriously consider reaching for him in the fifth just to make sure a Fanalyst doesn’t beat me to the punch. Why? Because the Detroit Lions are allowing an absolutely absurd 24.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Read that again. Nearly 25 points per game! For perspective, half the league allows fewer than 10 fantasy points per game to the position. That’s not just a favorable matchup; that’s a statistical gold mine. Hockenson is also enjoying a resurgence thanks to Kyler Murray’s playing style, and while his game log includes a few stinkers, we’ve already seen what his ceiling looks like. Just a few weeks ago against Miami, he was targeted 13 times, caught all 13 passes, and racked up 119 receiving yards. That’s elite wide receiver volume coming from your tight end slot. Now he gets the most generous tight end defense in football at a seventh-round price tag? Don’t overthink this one. Hockenson belongs in as many Week 8 lineups as you can reasonably build.

  • Stack Attack — Week 8

    Stacking is one of the most efficient ways to separate yourself from the field in Quicktasy tournaments.

    When an offense has a big day, your team benefits. When a quarterback throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, there’s a good chance at least one of his pass catchers is putting up tournament-winning numbers right alongside him.

    That’s why stacks matter: we are looking to build lineups with the highest ceiling to help you win a Quicktasy tournament.

    This week, we are identifying the highest-upside game environments on the Week 8 slate and the best stacks to pair with those matchups.

    The New England Patriots offense has bounced back after its three-week skid to start the season. Since Week 4, the Patriots have averaged 31 points and 426 yards per game, with Drake Maye looking like his 2025 MVP runner-up self. Maye has been the QB1 during this stretch, averaging 29.7 fantasy points per game. What better week to draft him as your QB1?

    The Patriots travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins, and boy, oh boy, are they putting on a masterclass in tanking. They are losing games while setting the foundation for their future under head coach Jeff Hafley, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a matchup to take advantage of in fantasy football.

    The Dolphins allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (23.0) and the highest EPA per pass (+0.28), making them exactly the type of opponent Drake Maye can have an elite performance against. Why, you may ask? They do not pressure the quarterback, ranking 23rd in pressure rate (33.9%). Over the last four weeks, Drake Maye is second in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket (93.1), first in big-time throw percentage (7.7%), and has eight touchdowns to just two interceptions. Just draft Drake Maye early and don’t think twice about it.

    You may be thinking, why not A.J. Brown or Demario Douglas? Why are you telling me to play my hard-earned money on a nearly 37-year-old tight end? Well, my friend, that near-retirement-home tight end has been great during that same four-week stretch. Hunter Henry is the TE6, averaging 11 fantasy points per game, and ranks ninth in yards per route run (2.0) from Weeks 4–7.

    The Miami Dolphins defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (13.33), the fourth-most touchdowns (six), and the fourth-most receiving yards per game (74.67). Hunter Henry is Drake’s most reliable target on money downs, and I expect him to get six or more targets in this game. If you want a real longshot, draft Eli Raridon as your last pick. We have seen his usage increase week to week, with two games of 50 or more receiving yards in the last three weeks.

    Sometimes paying the premium is worth it. Under the Monday Night Football lights, the two connected five times for 74 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets.

    They are at home against the Arizona Cardinals in a game Vegas has given a 54.5-point total, tied for the highest of Week 8. It will be a shootout, as both defenses are atrocious, but from here on out, I will not suggest a Jacoby Brissett stack (the same goes for Kyler Murray).

    However, I will suggest one of the best QB-WR duos in the league. CeeDee is the WR2 on the season, and Dak Prescott is the QB8.

    Arizona’s defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (25.43), the most passing touchdowns (17), and the second-highest EPA per pass (+0.21). There is no threat of this defense shutting down the Cowboys offense. Every good offense they have faced has scored a minimum of 31 points, mostly through the passing game.

    Whenever Dak has played a bad defense this year, he has crushed his projections. I’m a fan of the form Dak is in right now, especially after his 23.28-point performance against the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles. With a healthy team around him in a great scoring environment, I’ll take the quarterback of the elite Cowboys offense.

    As for CeeDee, if he hadn’t dropped two passes on Monday night, he would have had a minimum of five more points, putting him at a potential 29.4. That’s his only issue: he drops the ball quite a bit, but when he catches it, he can make a big play.

    Arizona is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the second-most touchdowns as well (1.43 per game). This is a defense with a horrible secondary, and nobody will be able to cover Lamb, especially when he runs routes out of the slot. I don’t feel that I need to overanalyze a top-five wide receiver in the game right now. For a player who is second in the NFL in receiving yards (651) and touchdowns (six), I expect him to have a big game every week, but especially in this type of game environment.

    Arizona’s offense is “just good enough” to score enough points that Dallas won’t simply turn to Javonte Williams and Tyler Goodson on the ground, leaving plenty of opportunities for explosive plays from Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.

    There are some good longshots you can take, such as Geno Smith and Omar Cooper Jr. And if Lamar Jackson is out, I do not hate Tyler Huntley and Zay Flowers. However, sometimes it’s as easy as drafting elite players who play bad defenses early and figuring out the rest of your Quicktasy roster(s) later.

  • Cornerstone Picks — Week 7

    Last week, we were all over Colston Loveland, who finally delivered the breakout game we’d been waiting for. We also encouraged you to draft Jalen Coker, who rewarded believers with 13 targets and 97 receiving yards. That’s exactly what we’re hunting for every week: overlooked players with the opportunity to significantly outperform their draft capital. This week, we’ve got four more cornerstone values, including a couple of late-round picks who could separate your lineup from the field.

    Want a quarterback with legitimate slate-breaking rushing upside in the seventh round? Look no further than Malik Willis. He’s already flashed his wheels this season with games of 74 and 56 rushing yards, and now he gets his easiest opponent of the year: the New York Jets. Better yet, Green Bay is coming off its bye, and Willis gets standout rookie Caleb Douglas back after Douglas exploded onto the scene in Week 1. The rushing floor alone makes Willis intriguing, but the ceiling is what has me excited. We’re talking about a quarterback who could put up 40-plus rushing yards and two touchdowns against an overmatched Jets defense. That would put him firmly in the top-10 fantasy QB conversation for the first time this season, with upside for even more. At a seventh-round Quicktasy price tag, that’s the kind of value I want in my tournament lineups.

    This one might not feel sexy, but fantasy points don’t care about sexy. Dameon Pierce played an absurd 95% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last week and caught four passes out of the backfield. That’s bell-cow usage, plain and simple. He’s practically a stone-cold lock for a dozen touches, with legitimate upside for 20-plus, which is exceedingly rare for an eighth-round Quicktasy pick. But here’s the real kicker: Philadelphia gets the Dallas Cowboys and their universe-worst rushing defense. You couldn’t draw up a much better matchup for a running back seeing this kind of workload. Even if Pierce isn’t the most explosive player on the slate, volume plus matchup is a beautiful combination. Twenty-plus fantasy points is absolutely within reach, and you can get him several rounds later than other backs with similar opportunities.

    Here’s your late-round dart throw of the week. Konata Mumpfield is sitting there in the 11th round of Quicktasy drafts, and if you’ve already drafted, he makes for a sneaky replacement using one of your two post-draft edits. We know the Rams have lost Davante Adams, and while Puka Nacua is an absolute target monster, he can’t catch EVERY Matthew Stafford pass. Those targets have to go somewhere. Enter Mumpfield, the second-year wideout who has been productive whenever given an opportunity. Remember Week 3? He torched Denver for 93 yards and a touchdown despite limited opportunities. Now he gets a potential shootout against the Raiders, where Stafford could be throwing early and often. We’re not looking for a safe floor in the 11th round. We’re looking for a player who can turn a handful of extra targets into a tournament-winning performance. Mumpfield fits that description perfectly.

    Want a player who could appear in fewer than 5% of Quicktasy lineups but has the upside to propel you into the top 1% of tournament prizes? Say hello to Evan Engram. Yes, I know his production has been disappointing this season, but context matters. Five of his six matchups have come against top-quartile defenses versus tight ends, giving him arguably the toughest positional schedule in the league. Despite the lack of production, Engram is still playing the majority of the offensive snaps. Now he finally gets some relief against an Arizona Cardinals defense that might be the single best matchup to target with opposing tight ends. This is precisely the type of situation where I want to buy low before everyone else catches on. The opportunity is there, the matchup is tremendous, and the roster rate should be microscopic. Engram has the potential to be one of the biggest positional values of Week 7.

  • Stack Attack (Week 7)

    Stacking is one of the most efficient ways to separate yourself from the field in FanDrill tournaments.

    When an offense has a big day, your team benefits. When a quarterback throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, there’s a good chance at least one of his pass catchers is putting up tournament-winning numbers right alongside him.

    That’s why stacks matter: we are looking to build lineups with the highest ceiling to help you win a FanDrill tournament.

    This week, we are identifying the highest-upside game environments on the Week 7 slate and the best stacks to pair with those matchups.

    Jordan Love has been playing at an MVP level over the last three weeks. In that time, he is PFF’s second-highest-graded passer (92.1), leads the league in big-time throw percentage (11.5%), and has the seventh-most passing yards (840). It’s truly incredible what this Green Bay Packers passing attack has been doing, considering the fact that there is no run game and they have PFF’s lowest-graded offensive line (46.8 pass-blocking grade).

    The Packers take on the Detroit Lions, who have a bottom-three defense in the NFL. I won’t go crazy on the stats because I have in previous weeks, but we have all seen it. The only stat you care about is fantasy points, where the Lions allow 31.6 to the quarterback position, the most in the league. If there is one good part of this Lions defense, it’s the fact that they get pressure, ranking sixth in the NFL. However, Jordan Love doesn’t shy away from pressure; he welcomes it. Since Week 4, Love is third in PFF passing grade while under pressure (80.9), first in big-time throw percentage (20%!), and second in passer rating (128.9). The matchup is too good to deny, and with how well Jordan Love has been playing, he could easily finish as the fantasy QB1. I recently published a long-form film review on Jordan Love, where I go over plays that show he is playing at an MVP level in more depth.

    Matthew Golden and Christian Watson have been absolute terrors for opposing defensive backs, if they hold onto the ball. Golden leads the NFL in drops with seven, and Christian Watson has three. It hasn’t mattered, though. Since the Packers cannot run the ball, they have to throw on nearly every second and third down. They are third in the NFL in pass rate at 65.7%. These two receivers have been benefiting from this offensive scheme in ways you couldn’t imagine, especially Golden.

    We all knew who Christian Watson was coming into the year: a height-weight-speed receiver who can create an explosive play at any moment. However, he’s become much more than that. He is dominating in all areas of the field and is sixth in yards after the catch over expected at +64. Watson is the WR3 so far on the season, and in a game against a Lions defense that allows the third-most points to wide receivers, he could easily get 20 or more points this week.

    The same goes for Matthew Golden. He was perceived as a bust because he had a “bad” rookie year, but if you watched the film, you knew he was a good player waiting to break out. I’m going to pull an “If Man” here and say that if Matthew Golden had better hands, there would be some very uncomfortable conversations on the internet about him. Drops are a fluky stat; they do not consistently carry over from year to year or game to game, unless you are Jerry Jeudy. Even with all of the drops, he is the WR8 on the season, has three 100-yard games, and has scored a touchdown in three of the last four games. I am not afraid of Matthew Golden’s drops because he can still produce. Rather, I am afraid that he continues to be a WR1 on the season and I didn’t draft him when he had an elite matchup.

    Tucker Kraft is also an option, given that the Lions allow the most fantasy points to tight ends this year (20.8). However, his usage has not excited me this season, and I will be waiting to draft him in any FanDrill drafts until further notice.

    We finally saw Kyler Murray’s first good game as a Minnesota Viking in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints. He finished the game completing 80% of his passes for 229 yards and a touchdown, adding 51 more yards on the ground for 18.26 fantasy points.

    The Vikings take on the Indianapolis Colts at home on Sunday, and they are 6.5-point favorites for a reason. The Colts defense is abysmal. They allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (21.0). They are also 22nd in EPA per pass (-0.01), but the main thing? They are dead last in pressure percentage at 24.4%. Kyler Murray is going to have a field day standing behind PFF’s 13th-best offensive line. Well, if he can see over them.

    The Colts also allow the ninth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. While Kyler has not been running at the same volume he has in the past, last week showed some encouraging signs, as he had 10 rushing attempts. I could see him going over his rushing projection of 19.5 yards for the week.

    Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the NFL; we all know this. He is sixth in EPA per target and catch rate over expected (+0.75 and +16.5%, respectively). Jettas is one of the best route runners I’ve ever seen and one of the best receivers I have ever seen. I’m going to stop ogling over Justin Jefferson and tell you why I love this matchup.

    The Colts run man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL at 27.5% and will be without their top corner, Sauce Gardner. Their presumed CB1, Charvarius Ward, has a 51.2 PFF man coverage grade, ranking 73rd out of 117 cornerbacks. It is safe to say Justin Jefferson is going to have a field day, just like he did against New Orleans in Week 5. I say this because Jefferson is sixth in PFF receiving grade against man coverage (89.6) and fifth in yards per route run (3.76). Without their top corner, Justin Jefferson has a real path to 100 yards and a touchdown.

    The Colts are in a downward spiral right now after firing general manager Chris Ballard, and it will continue in Minnesota. Kyler could have his best game as a Viking against this putrid defense, and Justin Jefferson will be the main beneficiary of Kyler’s breakout game.

    “Nine” came to life in that fourth quarter. He threw for 243 yards in 11 minutes of play. I am going to keep this really short because there is only one scenario where J.J. McCarthy should even come within two scrolls of the draft board for you. If you draft a high-end quarterback early and Malik Nabers is staring at you in Round 2 or 3 of your FanDrill draft, think about J.J. later on. The Giants are taking on the Dallas Cowboys, who are allowing any and all quarterbacks to dominate them. If “Nine” can continue his doubled-up power as “Eighteen” that he found last week, then he could find himself firmly in the QB2 conversation. I’m being so serious when I say this: only do this if you like to play your cards, even if it is deuce-seven offsuit.

  • Stack Attack (Week 6)

    Stacking is one of the most efficient ways to separate yourself from the field in FanDrill tournaments.

    When an offense has a big day, your team benefits. When a quarterback throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, there’s a good chance at least one of his pass catchers is putting up tournament-winning numbers right alongside him.

    That’s why stacks matter: we are looking to build lineups with the highest ceiling to help you win a FanDrill tournament.

    This week, we are identifying the highest-upside game environments on the Week 6 slate and the best stacks to pair with those matchups.

    Caleb Williams has missed the last three weeks with the worst hamstring injury of all time. Just go back and watch his reaction. He was listed as a full participant Wednesday, meaning he will most likely be back for Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons.

    The Falcons have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2026 and the sixth-most passing yards per game. Caleb Williams has a chance to truly dominate this matchup. Kyle Monangai is questionable for the game, and if he misses it, that leaves just D’Andre Swift in the backfield. The run game will struggle with or without Monangai, as the Falcons have a top-five run defense in the NFL. The game script will be there for Caleb to get a ton of pass attempts as well as scrambles. A dual-threat quarterback against a bad passing defense that is without A.J. Terrell, its top pass rusher, and others? He can feast. His weapons have disappointed this year, but this is their get-right game against a weak secondary.

    Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this season, with many huge performances. Chris Olave, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tetairoa McMillan all had 96 or more yards against this defense. Outside receivers get targeted at a high rate against this defense, and Rome Odunze plays 77.2% of his snaps outside.

    Rome has been quite a disappointment in the NFL after being drafted ninth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, he has flashed at times, especially before he got hurt in 2025. This season, Rome has been the most efficient receiver on the Bears, leading the team in receiving yards while ranking third in receptions. With Caleb Williams back, I see Rome having a decent day. I am not saying he will be a WR1, but I believe he will outproduce his draft value.

    Wow, the Philadelphia Eagles have been a train wreck, and as I write this, Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup. With the Eagles’ offense already being inept at moving the ball, this makes the matchup even better for these two. The Panthers’ offense could get short fields, leading to more scoring opportunities for the Carolina stars.

    Bryce Young has been elite to start the season, and I believe it will continue in Week 6. The Panthers are coming off a bye, and that rest is crucial and usually helps in a big way the following week. He will be going against an Eagles defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in EPA per pass allowed (+0.04), passing yards allowed per game (238.8), and yards after the catch over e

  • Cornerstone Picks – Week 6

    Last week, we nailed two of the biggest values on the slate. Jayden Daniels was our cornerstone quarterback and finished as the week’s QB1, while Isaiah Likely delivered the TE1 performance despite his seventh-round Quicktasy price tag. That’s exactly what we’re looking for: elite production without paying elite draft capital. This week, we’re hunting for four more values with the upside to carry your tournament lineups.

    This article is aimed to be practical and quickly digestible.

    Don’t look now, but Deshaun Watson is starting to look like a legitimate fantasy weapon again. Baltimore has been middle of the pack against quarterbacks this season, but let’s consider the competition: Cam Ward, Michael Penix Jr., and a post-surgery Daniel Jones in Week 1. The larger sample from 2025 tells a different story, when the Ravens were the NFL’s worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks. Sure, they added Trey Hendrickson and made other upgrades, but I’m still betting this unit finishes in the bottom quartile. Meanwhile, Watson is finding his footing and, more importantly, his confidence. His rookie wide receiver duo of K.C. Concepcion and Denzel Boston, alongside sophomore weapon Harold Fannin Jr., gives him a formidable trio of pass catchers. But here’s the real kicker: Watson ranks second among all NFL skill players in forced missed tackle percentage and is leaning into his legs more each week. The Browns are competitive, Watson is hungry for redemption, and his early fourth-round Quicktasy price tag offers tremendous upside.

    You want upside? Look no further than Breece Hall’s backup, who has become the Jets’ absolute bell cow. Since Hall went down, Allen has played a ridiculous 90% of the offensive snaps. For perspective, Derrick Henry is below 60% this season, Bijan Robinson averages in the low 70s, and even Kenneth Walker is under 80%. Whatever touches the game script allows, almost all of them belong to Allen. Now here’s where it gets interesting. The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites, but that still implies roughly a 28% chance of a Jets victory. If New York wins, you can practically bank on 20-plus touches for an exceptionally talented young running back with the ability to break a long touchdown or two. I’ll gladly take those odds on a seventh-round Quicktasy pick. This is exactly the kind of contrarian upside that wins GPPs.

    Jalen Coker is going to EAT this weekend in Philadelphia. The budding star—dare I say that?—was tremendous to close 2025 and picked up right where he left off in Weeks 1 and 2, hauling in 16 receptions for 204 yards and two touchdowns before suffering an injury in Week 3. Now he’s back practicing after the bye, and he finally gets a favorable game script. Philadelphia has developed into a classic slot-funnel defense. They’re strong enough elsewhere that opposing offenses are practically invited to attack the slot, and teams have been exploiting that mismatch. That’s precisely where Coker can do damage. With Carolina likely needing to throw to keep pace, the target volume could be enormous. Grab him in the sixth round with confidence. We’re talking about a player with legitimate breakout potential at a price that doesn’t remotely reflect his ceiling.

    Yes, I know you’re all cringing, but hear me out. The Bears have already faced five of the NFL’s 10 toughest defenses against tight ends, and they were without Caleb Williams for three of those games. That’s a brutal combination for a young tight end trying to establish himself. This isn’t even about Atlanta being an easy opponent; the Falcons rank in the second quartile against the position. Rather, it’s a bet on the massively talented Loveland finally getting a reasonable matchup with his starting quarterback healthy. Remember, we’re talking about an elite prospect with the physical tools to become one of the best receiving tight ends in football. And now you can draft him in the ninth or 10th round? This may be the cheapest we’ll see Loveland over the next five-plus seasons. His roster rate should be microscopic, but his ceiling is anything but. That’s a perfect combination for Week 6 GPPs.

  • Cornerstone Picks – Week 5

    Week 5 brings us some unusual values thanks to injuries, slow starts, and players returning to full strength. That means we can grab legitimate difference-makers several rounds later than their talent would typically warrant. As always, we’ll aim to locate the best values of the week with one cornerstone play from each of the four positions.

    This article is aimed to be practical and quickly digestible.

    Remember when Jayden Daniels was the QB3 in fantasy football rankings just four weeks ago? Apparently, FanDrill drafters don’t. Daniels is returning from an elbow injury, and if anything, I expect him to rely on his legs even more while he gets comfortable throwing again. We’re talking about a quarterback with 35-plus-point upside in any given week, and now he gets a weak Giants defense with gunslinger Jameis Winston on the other side creating the potential for an ideal game script. Chig Okonkwo will finally be back at full strength, and Terry McLaurin may return this week as well. Daniels’ ADP currently lands in the fourth round, and I’ll make a prediction: this is the cheapest you’ll be able to get him all season.

    Don’t look now, but the Patriots are trying out running backs, which could be a pretty strong indication that Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury may keep him out in Week 5. If that’s the case, Henderson immediately becomes one of my favorite running back values on the slate. He’s been an absolute stud in limited starts and would offer easy top-10 fantasy RB upside with a full workload. Better yet, he gets a Raiders defense that has been lit up on the ground despite facing negative game scripts and weak opponents. The Patriots are favored despite what the teams’ records might suggest, and if the game plays out accordingly, Henderson could be in line for 20-plus touches. Give a player with his game-breaking, slate-breaking speed that kind of volume and watch out.

    Maybe Marvin Harrison Jr. really is Sammy Watkins 2.0, but there is simply too much talent here for him to be going in the ninth round against this Detroit secondary. The Lions have been making opposing quarterbacks look like Tom Brady this season, and Harrison has two-TD upside in any game because of his physical presence in the red zone. Now put him in a near-guaranteed shootout and give him by far his easiest matchup of the year. Don’t forget, Harrison had to deal with the Chargers, Seahawks, and 49ers before finally finding the end zone last week. He’s still playing more than 80% of the snaps, and he’s bound to eat one of these weeks. Perhaps most importantly, this is a perfect opportunity to zig while everyone else zags toward Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. Harrison’s roster rate should remain low, making him one of my favorite contrarian values of Week 5.

    We’ll gladly take the injury-tag discount on this one. Likely is questionable, but he’s expected to play as the Giants take it easy on him while he works through a minor injury. Assuming he’s ready for a full workload Sunday, he gets a Commanders defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Here’s the wild part: Likely ranks inside the top 10 in target share in the NFL. Read that again—not among tight ends, but among all pass catchers. With an opportunity share like that in a prime matchup, FanDrill users should be willing to reach into the sixth round to lock up a player who offers both a safe floor and legitimate slate-breaking upside. Keep in mind, Jameis Winston is slinging the ball now, and with Likely’s speed, long touchdowns are on the table more than ever.