Every week in the NFL, the unpredictable happens. Last week, Tyler Allgeier came out of nowhere to finish as the RB1, while Cam Ward and Adonai Mitchell both put together the biggest performances of their respective seasons. If you had any of those players at ADP, you had a significantly increased chance of cashing in your contests.
That’s the beauty of bold predictions: finding players with low probabilities of hitting but massive upside if things break their way. This week, I’m giving you five more predictions for the main slate that have less than a 10% chance of happening in simulations, but are absolutely within the realm of possibility. If even one of these contrarian picks strikes gold, you could be sitting atop the leaderboard.
>> Worried about injuries if you draft early? Don’t sweat it; you have two post-draft edits for each lineup.
#1 Joe Milton rushes for 80 yards and a touchdown
These are my favorite kinds of plays: a high-upside player in a favorable matchup getting his first, and possibly last, opportunity to make a name for himself in the NFL.
Quarterbacks often play with restraint when it comes to using their legs. But when your NFL career might be on the line, you’d better believe it’s time to break out the big guns. In Milton’s case, those are rocket-powered legs.
Milton gets a friendly matchup against the Giants, and based on how J.J. McCarthy played during his first two weeks with New York, the Eagles could also find themselves in a pass-heavy game script.
Milton has the athleticism to make things happen on the ground, and this could be the perfect opportunity for him to show it. Don’t be surprised if he rushes for 80 yards and a score.
#2 Seth McGowan finishes as an RB1 with an 11th-round price tag
Yes, Jonathan Taylor is still on the roster and will likely remain there when you complete your drafts. But there is a chance that changes before the slate starts.
If Taylor gets traded or the Colts make him inactive, as the Cardinals did with Marvin Harrison Jr. to preserve his trade value, McGowan could suddenly become the lead back. And you just got him six rounds later than you would have needed to draft Taylor.
If Taylor isn’t traded or made inactive, you can simply replace McGowan with one of your two post-draft edits. Nothing lost.
But if McGowan gets the start against the Cowboys’ horrendous run defense, running behind the Colts’ strong offensive line, he should have a very productive week. At an 11th-round price, the potential payoff is enormous.
#3 Woody Marks rushes for 100-plus yards
You may not have even realized it, but Woody Marks took over the Texans’ backfield four weeks ago and has been getting fed nearly 20 touches every game.
David Montgomery was ruled out just three hours before I started writing this article, so strike before Marks’ ADP skyrockets.
Believe it or not, the Chargers have one of the weakest run defenses in football this season. The game script should also be among the most favorable Houston has seen all year for a heavy rushing attack.
Marks already has the workload. Now he gets the matchup and opportunity to turn it into a monster performance. I think he clears 100 rushing yards this week.
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#4 Tetairoa McMillan finishes outside the top 40 wide receivers
Unfortunately, this is the perfect storm to slow down what has otherwise been a tremendous young wide receiver.
Patrick Surtain, who is allowing just 0.14 fantasy points per route run, may be the best cornerback in the NFL. He’s gearing up to lock McMillan down in man-to-man coverage, where McMillan has posted a negative separation score.
Carolina’s offensive line is also ailing, which only makes matters worse. Against an exceptional Broncos defense, I expect the Panthers’ passing game to struggle altogether.
McMillan is a tremendous talent, but this matchup presents too many obstacles. I think he finishes outside the top 40 wide receivers this week.
#5 Eli Rairdon finishes as a top-eight tight end
Hunter Henry hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he didn’t practice Wednesday. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are also dealing with the absence of A.J. Brown, who is expected to miss yet another week with an injury.
Essentially, Drake Maye has no one to throw to.
Well, no one except the tight end who currently ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per route run: Eli Rairdon.
Green Bay is certainly no pushover defensively, but Rairdon has too much talent and too much opportunity to overlook him at an 11th-round price tag. If the targets come his way, he has a legitimate opportunity to finish among the top eight tight ends this week.
Jett Morris is a Sr. Fantasy Analyst for Quicktasy. Draft against his rankings today…but try to avoid being sniped!
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